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COVID-19 & Toronto Real Estate Market

COVID-19 & Toronto Real Estate Market

Keep in mind the situation regarding COVID-19 is changing on a day-to-day basis. This article is a breakdown of the current COVID-19 situation (as of March 25th, 2020) and how it relates to the Toronto real estate market from the perspective of a local Toronto Realtor.

We're entering the ordinarily busy spring market for Toronto real estate, but as it stands now, everything is at a standstill. Sellers are reluctant to let any potential buyers into their homes and buyers are self-isolating, not leaving the house. Across the GTA, the number of listings is down, and the amount of demand is down - way down. I have personally experienced plenty of listings in Toronto cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Bank of Canada cuts interest rates - what you need to know
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Bank of Canada cuts interest rates - what you need to know

The Bank of Canada cut the interest rate last week in an apparent bid to deal with the economic shock created by the threat of coronavirus.

The Bank reduced the national interest rate by 0.50% to 1.25% on the 4th March, following the cut by the US Federal Reserve the day before.

The threat of coronavirus has caused business activity to fall sharply in some regions and the currency to depreciate, while the Bank warned that business and consumer confidence could fall further.

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Market Watch - February 2020
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Market Watch - February 2020

TORONTO, MARCH 4, 2020 – In line with the forecast contained in the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s recently released Market Year in Review and Outlook Report, TRREB President Michael Collins announced a very strong year-over-year sales and price growth in February 2020.

Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 7,256 residential transactions through TRREB’s MLS® System in February 2020, representing a 45.6 per cent increase compared to a 10-year sales low in February 2019. However, February 2020 sales were still below the 2017 record result. Year-over-year sales growth, for the GTA as a whole, was strongest for ground-oriented home types.

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, February 2020 sales also exhibited positive momentum, up by 14.8 per cent compared to January 2020.

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Toronto Real Estate 2020 Price Growth
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Toronto Real Estate 2020 Price Growth

Now we’re into the new year it seems a good time to reflect on where house prices are likely to end up in 2020. Over the course of 2019 Toronto house prices increased by 4% (Toronto Real Estate Board), but I would expect an increase in the region of 6-7% and even 8% this year.

Why? Well if the start of the year is anything to go by, there’s a lack of properties being listed and significant demand for the ones that are available.

I’m hearing tales of properties with 30-40 offers and as much as 77 offers! – and that kind of competition is going to push prices up. Sometimes sellers price properties on the cheap to attract multiple offers, but it’s now happening on properties that seem fairly priced too.

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Market Watch - January 2020
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Market Watch - January 2020

TORONTO, February 6, 2020 - TRREB President Michael Collins announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 4,581 home sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in January 2020 – up by 15.4 per cent compared to January 2019. On a preliminary seasonally adjusted basis, sales were up by 4.8 per cent compared to December 2019.

“We started 2020 where 2019 left off, with very strong growth in the number of sales up against a continued dip in the number of new and available listings. Tighter market conditions compared to a year ago resulted in much stronger growth in average selling prices. Steady population growth, low unemployment and low borrowing costs continued to underpin substantial competition between buyers in all major market segments,” said Mr. Collins.

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Market Watch - December 2019
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Market Watch - December 2019

TORONTO, January 7, 2020 - Toronto Real Estate Board President Michael Collins reported that December 2019 residential sales reported through TREB’s MLS® System by Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® were up by 17.4 per cent year-over-year to 4,399. Total sales for calendar year 2019 amounted to 87,825 – up by 12.6 per cent compared to the decade low 78,015 sales reported in 2018. On an annual basis, 2019 sales were in line with the median annual sales result for the past decade.

“We certainly saw a recovery in sales activity in 2019, particularly in the second half of the year. As anticipated, many home buyers who were initially on the sidelines moved back into the market place starting in the spring. Buyer confidence was buoyed by a strong regional economy and declining contract mortgage rates over the course of the year,” said Mr. Collins.

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Market Watch - November 2019
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Market Watch - November 2019

TORONTO, December 4, 2019 - Toronto Real Estate Board President Michael Collins announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 7,090 sales through TREB’s MLS® System in November 2019 – a 14.2 per cent increase compared to November 2018. On a GTA-wide basis, sales were up year-over-year for all major market segments. Annual sales growth in ground- oriented home types, including detached houses, led the way.

New listings entered into TREB’s MLS® System in November and the active listings count at the end of the month went in the opposite direction compared to last year, with new listings down 17.9 per cent year-over-year and active listings down 27.2 percent.

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