What the June 2026 numbers say about Toronto's real estate market

Here's what the June Market Watch report says, released by TRREB on July 3:

• Sales: 6,770, up 9.4% from June 2025, one of the strongest Junes in almost two years
• New listings: 17,282, down 12.9% year over year
• Active listings: 27,329, down 13.5%
• Average selling price: $1,058,658, down 3.9%
• Average days on market (property): 42, unchanged from last June

On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales rose faster than new listings again, and TRREB says the market has tightened through the spring. The MLS Home Price Index Composite, a broader read on prices, was down 5.4% year over year. Plain English: prices are still lower than a year ago, but the pace of that decline has been shrinking for a few months.

Sales for the first half of the year came in ahead of the first six months of 2025, even after a slow start in January and February. TRREB is calling 2026 a "year of two halves," a soft first quarter followed by a stronger second one.

What's driving the shift

Supply is tightening faster than demand is rising. New listings and active listings are both down more than 12% year over year, while sales are up. Fewer homes are coming to market, and buyers are absorbing what's there more quickly than they were a year ago.

Borrowing costs have been steady for a while. The Bank of Canada held its rate at 2.25% again on June 10, the fifth hold in a row. Inflation has ticked up because of oil prices tied to the war in the Middle East, and the Bank has said it won't let that turn into a longer-term problem. The next rate announcement is July 15. A hold seems likely, but it isn't guaranteed. (Not mortgage advice. Talk to a broker about your specific situation.)

Policy is starting to lean on the cost side too. Ontario just committed $1.5 billion to help Toronto cut development charges, on top of the federal-provincial DC reduction program already in motion. TRREB notes that DCs can add up to 20% to the cost of a new home, so this is aimed at supply over the next few years, not at resale prices today.

Where the segments are diverging

Not every part of the market is moving at the same pace this month.

• Detached homes: average price down about 2% year over year to $1.36M, the smallest gap of any major property type and the segment leading the market back toward balance.
• Semi-detached: average price down 4.7% to just over $1.04M.
• Freehold townhouses: average price down 5.5% to about $912K.
• Condo apartments: average price down 9.4% to roughly $631K, still the softest corner of the market, with 1,714 units sold across the GTA and the most inventory sitting on the sidelines.

Family-sized freehold homes are stabilizing well ahead of condos. If you're watching one segment and not the other, the market probably looks pretty different depending on which one it is.

What this means if you're buying or selling

If you're looking at a detached or semi-detached home, expect a bit less room to negotiate than earlier this year. Listings are down, sales are up, and well-priced homes are moving at close to asking, the average sale-to-list ratio across the GTA sat at 98% in June.

Condos are still the buyer-friendly corner of the market. Prices are down close to 10% from a year ago, and there's more inventory to choose from than in any other segment. If you're a first-time buyer weighing a condo, this is a more workable entry point than it's been in years. My Toronto Home Buyer Guide walks through the process if you're new to it.

If you're a seller, the direction of travel is in your favour, especially for freehold properties. But pricing still has to be right. Homes priced to the current market are selling close to list. Homes priced for the market that existed a year ago are sitting.

A few practical things either way:

• Lock in financing early if you can. Rates have been flat for months, but the Bank has flagged upside risk if the oil price shock sticks around.
• Don't wait for a single headline to confirm "the bottom." Base a move on your own five-plus-year plan, not on trying to time the market.
• If your comparables are more than a few months old, get a fresh read. Prices in some segments have moved enough that older comps are stale.

Looking ahead

June was a genuinely strong month, one of the best Junes for sales in almost two years, with supply still tightening underneath it. TRREB's outlook calls for that trend to keep building through the second half of the year, eventually turning into renewed price growth. That lines up with what the numbers are showing so far.

The uncertainty sits outside the local market more than inside it. Oil prices tied to the Middle East conflict, the CUSMA renewal talks starting this month, and whatever the Bank of Canada decides on July 15 could all shift the picture. None of that is settled yet.

Cautious optimism is still the right read for June, a notch more confident than it was in the spring, but not yet a market that's fully turned the corner.

If you're thinking about a move this summer or fall and want to talk through your specific situation, reach out and we'll set up a discovery call.

Stats current as of July 2026. The market moves fast, so confirm current figures before making a decision.