Toronto Real Estate Market Update: September 2026

Sep 8

The August 2026 Toronto real estate market update has a headline that isn't the sales number. GTA home sales came in at 5,057, down 2.1% from last August. That's close to flat. The more interesting number is on the other side of the ledger. Sellers pulled back much harder than buyers did.

What the August numbers say about the Toronto real estate market

Sales: 5,057, down 2.1% from last year
New listings: 12,075, down 14.1%
Active listings: 24,482, down 11.3%
Average selling price: $993,410, down 2.7%
Average days on market: 35

The gap between those first two lines is the whole story. Sales barely moved. New listings dropped by more than 14%. When supply falls faster than demand, the market tightens even when nothing dramatic is happening on the sales side.

By home type, the softness isn't spread evenly. Detached homes averaged $1,288,669 across the GTA and are down just 1.8% from last year. Semis came in at $931,665, down 4.9%. Freehold townhouses averaged $882,060, down 6.8%. Condos averaged $617,593, down 3.8%.

One caution on that average price of $993,410. It slipped back under a million, but part of the month-to-month movement is mix. When more houses and fewer condos sell in a given month, the average goes up on its own. The benchmark price, which controls for that, is down 4.5% year over year. That's the truer read.

Why there are fewer homes for sale

A few things are happening at once.

Sellers who don't have to move are staying put. Prices are still below where they were a year ago. If you bought in 2021 or 2022, selling right now may mean taking a loss you don't have to take.
Some owners who would have sold have rented their place out instead and are waiting for a better market.
August is always a quiet month. But a 14% drop in new listings is bigger than normal seasonality explains.

Worth keeping in perspective: at roughly 4.6 months of inventory, this is still a balanced market. It isn't a seller's market. It's just less loose than it was six months ago.

The Bank of Canada held rates. Fixed rates went up anyway.

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2, the seventh hold in a row. The next decision is October 28.

Here's the part that catches people off guard. Fixed mortgage rates have been climbing through all of it. The five-year Government of Canada bond yield sat at 3.28% in late August, up from 2.72% in February. Fixed rates follow that yield, not the Bank's overnight rate. So waiting for the Bank to move before locking something in has not been paying off.

If you have a renewal coming or a purchase planned for the fall, it's worth getting a rate hold in place now rather than waiting on the October decision. Most lenders will hold a rate for 90 to 120 days at no cost, and you keep the lower rate if they fall.

This isn't mortgage advice. Talk to a mortgage broker about your specific numbers.

What this means depending on where you sit

If you own and you're staying put. Nothing here demands action. Your equity position is roughly where it was, and the tighter supply is mildly good news for your value.

If you're thinking about selling. There's less competition on the market than there has been in a while. That's the clearest advantage sellers have had in some time. It doesn't mean pricing aggressively works. Buyers are still careful and homes are still taking about five weeks to sell.

If you're buying. You have less to choose from than last year, and that's the real trade-off. Condos remain the softest segment and the most negotiable. Sort out your financing before you shop.

What to watch this fall

Two things will decide how the fall goes.

If new listings stay down by double digits through September and October, and the Bank holds again on October 28, the market goes into next spring from a tighter starting position than this one did. That usually shows up as firmer prices before it shows up as higher sales.

If sellers come back in volume this fall, which happens when people who waited out the summer decide they're done waiting, that resets and we stay where we are. Watch the September listing count more than the price number.

Stats current as of September 2026 and sourced from TRREB's August Market Watch. Markets move fast, so confirm current figures before making a decision.

If you're weighing a move over the next year and want to talk through what this means for your specific place, reach out and we can set up a call. My selling page covers how I approach pricing and marketing if you're further along than that.